Bill Barnwell writes for Grantland for the NFL. So that automatically makes him smart according to the conventional wisdom. Now I do not think that Bill Barnwell hates the Miami Dolphins, he was exceedingly optimistic on the Dolphins heading into 2010 at one point comparing Chad Henne to Drew Brees. The point is, he is not a Dolphin hater. What Bill Barnwell is, is lazy. He refuses to look up just rudimentary stats.
Here is the link to his preview on the Dolphins:
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9629356/bill-barnwell-nfl-teams-worse-2013
He predicts the Dolphins to be worse then 7-9 last year, which is fine. I have not written a take down of Peter King who predicts the same thing. But at least King's reasoning is grounded in facts. Barnwell's preview is lazy, the laziness that Grantland supposedly stands against.
A stat that Barnwell sites repeatedly for the teams listed also in the article is fumble recovery rate and how if it is over 50% it will most likely regress the next year. He does not site that statistic with the Dolphins, why? Well on defense Miami forced 19 fumbles recovering 6 and on offense the 17 fumbles 8 recovered. So in other words Miami had really bad fumble luck especially on defense. By Barnwell's own admission which he sites on other teams, that should improve, thus the Dolphins should improve.
One other point about the Barnwell preview, during the Colts preview he states Indy will start 2-0 because they play the Raiders and Dolphins, who they are clearly superior too. Last year, the Colts beat Miami by 4 points when a late drive fizzled, and Sean Smith dropped an interception. Also in that game, Miami was repeatedly hurt by Jake Long getting beat off the corner repeatedly. It is quite clear that Bill Barnwell did not watch this game or look at a box score or recap. Otherwise fact less statements about the Colts being clearly better then the Dolphins (by the way I think the Colts will beat the Dolphins too in that game, I doubt it is clearly though).
Now to Barnwell's actual preview, he discusses that he does not think that the Dolphins improved in all the areas.
He asks are the Dolphins better off with their additions:
Is Mike Wallace upgrade over Brandon Marshall? Marshall has not been on the team in two years now, I fail to see this point. And as anybody who has watched the Dolphins the last three years, knows the team has lacked a vertical threat to stretch the field. Is Wallace a better vertical threat then Marshall the answer is yes.
Is Daniel Ellerbe really better then Dansby? This argument is so poor it is laughable. Dansby when he was cut loose had to settle for a one year deal with the Cardinals, and that was not because he is so awesome. The Ravens were prepared to sign Ellerbe to a 5 million a year deal. That right there should indicate an improvement. But here are some stats for the stats guru (who curiously sites very few):
If you read Barnwell you would think Dansby is this great player, except for the fact he had a whole one sack last year. Ellerbe not even playing a full year had 4.5. Again, this would require Barnwell to do actual work.
Then he goes to the Jake Long argument that Martin will not be better then Jake Long. Jake Long last year gave up 4 sacks in 12 games. As anyone who watched a Phins game would tell you, he is not the same player he was. Was Martin bad in right tackle last year, the answer is yes. But here is another number for Barnwell 0 that would be the amount of sacks Martin gave up in the pre season at left tackle.
He then goes on to criticize the Dion Jordan pick. Stating they already have Cameron Wake. Actually, Bill that was a huge problem for the Dolphins last year. Sacks for Cameron Wake:15 for defensive ends not named Cameron Wake: 3. Now he wales about Jordan not being the cant miss player you should trade up for. Uggh he was the unanimous top defensive player in the draft. He may not be can't miss, but that argument is weak. A stronger argument would be pointing out Jordan has been hurt the whole pre season. But then again that would require somebody to actually do research.
Now he gets on Miami missing Tannehill's safety valves such as Reggie Bush (average a little over 2 catches a game, came off the field a lot on third down because he could not block). Anthony Fasano averaged 20 yards receiving a game, replaced by Charles Clay who averaged 15 yards receiving per game. Then there is Devone Bess, crazy its almost like Barnwell did not realize Miami signed Brandon Gibson in the off season who has only 10 less catches then Brandon Gibson.
Then Barnwell writes some prose about direction and views, its almost like he wrote this article just to write the end of it. Facts be damned.
Oh I did not even discuss Sean Smith over Brent Grimes. Stats be damned:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/12/15/3142823/miami-dolphins-sean-smith-most.htmlhttp://www.miamiherald.com/2012/12/15/3142823/miami-dolphins-sean-smith-most.html
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